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IN a knee-jerk reaction to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, the campaign for new dams has been resuscitated. The prime minister, too, has emphasised the need for new dams.
However, an essential condition for dam construction is surplus water. Contrary to claims that water is wasted as it enters the sea, flows in the Indus river system are plummeting. Flow patterns during 1976-2000 and 2001-2024 exhibit contradictory patterns in the Indus basin rivers. A look at the flow pattern at four critical points sheds more light. Pakistan’s river network is divided into two broad categories of the eastern rivers (Sutlej and Ravi) and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab), under Indian and Pakistani control respectively. The eastern rivers debouch into the Indus below the Panjnad barrage. An analysis of 50 years of river flows at these locations reveal that the waters in the basin are decreasing.
Climate change and transboundary diversions have affected river flows. The average inflows of western rivers at their rim stations were 135.6 MAF during 1976-98. However, average inflows by 1999-2022 had decreased to 120.8 MAF. Similarly, the average annual flows in the eastern rivers have reduced from 9.35 MAF during 1976-98 to just 2.96 MAF during 1999-2022.
Flows below the Panjnad barrage — the point of confluence of three eastern rivers plus the Jhelum river — also registered a decline of 65pc. The average annual discharges below the Panjnad barrage during 1976-2000 were 20.5 MAF. This declined to 7.5 MAF in 2001-2024. Consequently, the annual canal withdrawals of the provinces reduced from 102.73 MAF (1977-78 to 1981-82) to 95.85 MAF over 25 years. Similarly, the average annual flows below Kotri Barrage tumbled from 40.7 MAF to 14.8 MAF from 1976-99 to 1999-2023. This is corroborated by the fact that 12 of the last 25 years witnessed less than 10 MAF flows below Kotri Barrage.
Dam construction requires sufficient water.
Declining inflows and increased upstream diversions and storage have taken a huge toll on barrage discharges in Sindh located at the tail end of the Indus basin. The frequency of floods at Guddu Barrage has also experienced a drastic reduction. Guddu Barrage received medium floods of over 400,000 cusecs for 23 years during 1976-2000. However, floods of the same level were registered for only 10 years over the last 24 years. Likewise, the frequency of high flooding of 500,000 cusecs declined from 20 times to only seven in the same years. Sukkur Barrage experienced five super floods of over 800,000 cusecs during 1976-2000. Compared to that, only one super flood was experienced in the subsequent 24 years.
The disturbing trend has been captured by a World Bank report Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry. The report warns that due to rapid glacial retreat, the Indus basin is likely to endure a colossal decrease of 30 to 40 per cent in its flows in the coming decades. The UN’s World Water Development Report 2025 has also underscored concerns about our water future. The report reveals that glacier retreat in the Hindukush-Himalayan region is alarmingly high — 65pc faster during 2011-2020 compared to the previous decade. These ice and snow deposits are also melting menacingly faster than the global average.
It does not take a genius to conclude that river flows in the basin are declining sharply. It makes the situation more complicated for water managers. They ought to shun their over-simplistic panacea of constructing new dams and diversions. The waterscape of the Indus basin merits prudent decision-making. Many water quacks continue to insist on their trite prescription of more dams, without realising that the present river flows are not enough to cater even to our current water needs. Moreover, under-construction storage and diversion projects also require a substantial quantum of water, a fact that is often ignored when prescribing new dams. The ongoing projects require an estimated 12 MAF of additional water. These projects include the Bhasha dam (6.4 MAF), the Mohmand dam (0.88 MAF), the Kurram Tangi dam (0.9 MAF), the CRBC Lift cum Gravity project (1.19 MAF), the Kachhi canal (1.21 MAF), the Rainee canal (1.25 MAF), the Pat Feeder Extension (0.1 MAF), the Nai Gaj dam (0.16 MAF) and other small storage sites.
Pakistan’s national water policy has rightly emphasised the need to increase water efficiency and productivity. The policy also recognises the need for the conservation of water-dependent ecosystems, especially in the Indus delta, which have been degraded to precarious levels due to massive upstream diversions in the last century. Pakistan needs to move from concrete structures to the efficient use of water.
The writer is a civil society professional.
Published in Dawn, June 16th, 2025
